The secret behind Elon Musk’s goal of selling 20 million Tesla’s a year by 2030 lies in its pioneering battery technology.
The good news is that by using bigger cells and a new process to dry-coat electrodes, Tesla could halve the cost of a Model Y battery, saving more than 8% of the car’s US starting price, battery experts with ties to the company said.
The bad news is that it’s only halfway there, according to 12 experts close to Tesla or familiar with its new technology.
That’s because the dry-coating technique used to produce the bigger cells in Tesla’s 4680 battery is so new and unproven the company is having trouble scaling up manufacturing to the point where the big cost savings kick in, Reuters reported.
“They just aren’t ready for mass production,” said one of the experts close to Tesla.
The gains Tesla has already made in cutting battery production costs in the past two years could help boost profits and extend its lead over most electric vehicle rivals.
Musk’s promised improvements in battery cost and performance are seen by investors as critical to Tesla’s quest to usher in an era where it can sell a $25,000 EV for a profit – and stand a better chance of hitting its 2030 targets.
Battery systems are the most expensive single element in most EVs, so making lower-cost, high-performance packs is key to producing affordable electric cars that can go toe to toe with combustion-engine rivals on sticker prices.
Tesla is one of only a handful of major automakers that produce their own EV batteries and by manufacturing Model Y cells at US plants, the SUV will remain eligible for US tax credits when many rival EVs may no longer qualify.
Among the 12 battery experts Reuters spoke with, nine have close ties to Tesla and three of the nine have examined Tesla’s new and old battery technology inside and out through teardowns.
